On the 15th of September, the leaders of the US, UK, and Australia announced the formation of a new security alliance, dubbed AUKUS. Whilst the primary anglosphere states all partake in numerous other security pacts – such as the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance – the details of this most recent adventure have raised eyebrows in the global security community, as well as angered others with a stake in the region. Speculated to form part of the US’s medium to long term strategy in the Indo-Pacific, the AUKUS Alliance bolsters existing US alliance structures, like The Quad, in its effort to contain Chinese influence in the region. The agreement extends security cooperation between the three countries to a level deeper, covering the sharing of military technologies – most notably nuclear submarine technology.

The question remains, what does the AUKUS Alliance mean for the Indo-Pacific? On the surface, the alliance is merely a natural progression of some of the existing security arrangements between the US, UK, and Australia. The sharing of American nuclear submarine technology for the first time since 1958 – when it was shared with the UK – represents a significant commitment to shoring up the defences of its Indo-Pacific allies. After all, much of the US hegemonic strength is drawn from its security alliances all around the world, AUKUS represents a continuation of such commitments. Australia’s desire to further cooperate with the United States in the Indo-Pacific signals the magnitude of its commitment to its shared values – and political-economic interests – in the region. Understandably, the agreement’s flagship proposal – the Australian acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines – has alienated New Zealand, notably a product of its fierce anti-nuclear sentiment and policy. Indeed nuclear submarines are far more stealthy and have far greater ranges than their conventional diesel-electric counterparts. The desire by the Australians to upgrade to such technology indicates an acknowledgement of potential future tensions. The acquisition of these submarines should in theory cause Chinese policymakers to redraw their plans given the increased range of an Australian regional presence.

Yet the alliance may contribute to destabilisation not just in the Indo-Pacific but globally. Perceptions regarding China-US competition can contribute to destabilisation, especially when the global system is becoming increasingly divided into a “Cold-War” type order. Chinese foreign Whilst perhaps not in its own right significant enough to tip the balance of power or induce a hard perception shift in the regional order in the Indo-Pacific, the AUKUS Alliance does telegraph to policymakers the future intentions and policy responses of the alliance members.

The loss of the A$90 Billion submarine contract with France’s Naval Group SA has promptly soured relations with all three countries associated in the security pact given the nature of the pact’s clandestine formulation. Tensions reached boiling point when the French ambassador’s to both the United States and Australia were recalled. An important security partner in Europe for the US and Britain, such a diplomatic bungling serves only to entrench a lack of trust and faith in France’s allies and to embolden French ambitions for a European Army, the formation of which might in the future displace contemporary cooperation with the US and its security network in Europe and abroad. Given the eventual drawdown of American forces in Europe in favour for its “pivot to Asia” strategy, as well as the Trump administration’s disdain for the NATO defence spending mix, it is clear to see where such an explicit reorientation - and isolation of France - by Washington might lead Europe.

The AUKUS Alliance is for the US a first “post-Afghanistan” step towards realising its Indo-Pacific ambitions and strategy. The sharing of nuclear submarine technology may herald a new era of American technology sharing agreements with other regional allies such as India and Japan, as well as boost confidence in US commitment to action in the region. The implications of such moves may, however, prove to be more destabilising than otherwise.

Indo-Pacific tensions are sub-nuclear for now, but an increasingly binary security dynamic may prove to dial up the heat.

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