Water, Land, and Violence
Mr. Ahmed is Running Out of Time.
Sudan and Egypt are Running out of Water.
Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed’s campaign against the region of Tigray and the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front has escalated tensions into a violent conflict that threatens more than just the security of Ethiopia but the broader region of Northeast Africa. Since late last year, fighting in the Ethiopian region of Tigray has raged on leaving hundreds of thousands on the brink of famine, and war crimes becoming commonplace. Notwithstanding the atrocities occurring within Ethiopia, the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has flared tensions between Ethiopia and the downstream countries of the Blue Nile – Sudan and Egypt. The region appears to be – again – standing at the precipice of chaos.
Spectre of Defeat
Abiy Ahmed’s offensive in Tigray to quell support for the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) – the party that led Ethiopia’s government for 27 years – has the region in a state of turmoil. Since his election in 2018, President Ahmed has systematically dismantled the power base of the TPLF, removing Tigrayan officials from the central government and ostracising them through the creation of a new political party – of which the TPLF refused to join. Despite their disenfranchisement, the TPLF has retained control of the region of Tigray and defied orders from the government to postpone elections last year in September 2020 (owing to fears regarding the spread of Covid-19).
The subsequent elections have provided the basis for a “peacekeeping operation” in the region of Tigray with support from Eritrean military forces and local militia from the Amhara region sympathetic to the government. Whilst the army managed to capture the Tigrayan regional capital Mekelle on the 28th of November 2020, only for the TDF (Tigrayan Defence Force) to recapture the city 7 months later in June 2021. This stinging defeat marked a beginning of a turn in the war effort in favour of the TDF, with the front line moving into the region of Amhara – home to the capital city Addis Ababa.
Pro-government militia during training exercises, November 2020 - Financial Times (Eduardo Soteras, Getty Images)
A significant contributing factor in the direction of the conflict has been the continued underestimation of the Tigrayan Defence Force and its fighting capabilities. The loss of Mekelle and the shooting down of a C-130 Cargo plane is evidence of such underestimation. Just last week on the 2nd of November, the TDF took control of the city of Dessie in the Amhara region, only 400km north of Addis Ababa. With the EH2 highway out of Dessie providing a clear route to Addis Ababa, the capital may soon feel the sharp grip of urban conflict.
The capture of Addis Ababa would surely mark the defeat of Abiy’s government, and such a possibility is not too far from reality.
The Renaissance Problem
Outside of Ethiopian borders, another crisis is brewing.
Since the functional completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) – which is located on the Blue Nile River – the Ethiopian government has begun the process of filling the dam’s reservoir. The construction of the dam has been the focal point of contention between Sudan and Egypt, and Ethiopia over water rights. The two downstream states – Sudan and Egypt – have raised concerns regarding possible reductions in volume through the Blue Nile and into the Nile River, which is especially problematic for Egypt given that almost all of its freshwater is derived from the Nile.
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under construction, 2019 - Reuters (Tiksa Negeri)
With access to the dam’s operation and information sharing agreements refused by Ethiopian officials, Sudan and Egypt have hinted at a desperate yet firm strategy for securing their freshwater supplies that may involve the creation of a new front of conflict for Abiy Ahmed’s government. On the 27th of May this year, Sudan and Egypt participated in joint military exercises explicitly dubbed “Guardians of the Nile” to send a clear message to Addis Ababa and to portray their intentions should the diplomatic route prove unfeasible.
All of this falls into place alongside existing territorial disputes between Ethiopia and Sudan that were once the pretext for a bloody war some 50 years ago that cost the lives of tens of thousands on either side. That territorial dispute – over a stretch of very fertile farmland known as al-Fushqa – has been the site of minor clashes between Ethiopian and Sudanese military forces and militia over the past year.
Despite this, Sudan in particular is in no shape to ignite a serious conflict on its borders, even if its now beleaguered neighbour’s government is holding on by a thread.
Picking Up the Pieces
In addition to the international pressure from Egypt and Sudan vis-a-vis the issue of water and land rights, other neighbours of Ethiopia are worried about a different issue.
Kenya in particular is home to some of the largest refugee camps in East Africa with the Dadaab refugee complex being amongst the largest in the world – home to some 230,000 refugees. It comes to no surprise that Kenyan officials are watching the situation unfolding in Ethiopia closely given the humanitarian resources and the assistance provided by the UNHCR (UN High Commissioner for Refugees) are already stretched thin. The Kenyan government was hoping to close the North Kenyan refugee camps by the midpoint of next year, however, such a notion seems far from feasibility.
A protracted full-scale civil war in Ethiopia or worse a conflict between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt could precipitate the arrival of hundreds of thousands or possibly millions of refugees pushing humanitarian relief resources in the region to their limits, and adding further pressure to the security forces of Kenya that are already fatigued.
UNHCR shelters in the Dadaab refugee camp in Northern Kenya, 2011 - AP News (Jerome Delay)
Abiy Ahmed and the Ethiopian government have their hands full, both inside and outside Ethiopia's borders. With a humanitarian crisis in the Tigray region that is spiralling out of control towards a period of famine, the TPLF and its army full throttle towards the gates of Addis Ababa, and its downstream neighbours posturing towards an offensive to secure their freshwater, Mr Ahmed must come up with solutions fast or face the same fate as Mengistu Mariam 30 years ago.