The waters of the Mekong River have long been the source of prosperity for some 60 million inhabitants of the Mekong River Basin. Worryingly, however, the ecological health – and by extension, the economic stability – of the region has seen a gradual decline as the increasing intensity in the utilization of the river for generating electricity leaves both fish stocks and freshwater dangerously scarce. Whilst multilateral organisations such as the Mekong River Commission (MRC) and the Lancang Mekong Cooperation (LMC) group aim to foster sustainable development of the Mekong’s waters, clashing interests and overutilization may precipitate an ecological and humanitarian crisis in the coming years.

Given the importance of the Mekong River for the countries of the Lower Mekong Basin and for South Western China, dialogue and coordination regarding the sustainable development and management of the river is crucial in ensuring the maintenance of adequate water, food, and energy security. The Mekong River Commission, comprised of the Lao PDR, Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand, was set up in 1995 to sustainably manage the development of the Lower Mekong Basin. The Commission, however, lacks the tools for successful management. The commission only requires member states to notify and consult other members when considering or implementing a project and there are no binding policy instruments to prevent upstream states from exploiting their relative power dynamic. An example of this is the construction of the Xayaburi dam in the Lao PDR despite a prior moratorium on the construction of main-stem dams. An EarthRights International report highlighted the ecological impact of the dam, citing its contribution to the extinction of 41 fish species by preventing migration and spawning, as well as the impediment of sediment flows that will likely cause a deterioration in downstream soil quality, affecting agricultural production and potentially food security.

What About China?

Since 1993, China has built 11 dams on the Upper Mekong. The scale of the scheme is immense, with the two largest dams holding combined more water than the Chesapeake Bay and all 11 producing a combined electricity output of 21,310MW. China has, however, been found at the centre of controversy regarding its Lancang-Mekong river developments. A study undertaken by Eyes on Earth found that since the completion of the Nuozhadu Dam in 2012, that the wet season river height peak had dropped consistently by 1-2 meters (See Below). Additionally, the evidence collected exposed that during the 2019 Lower Mekong Basin Drought that whilst the Lower Mekong Basin had received lower than average precipitation, the Upper Mekong (the part of the river in China) had in fact received higher than average precipitation in the same period, and as such concluded that China’s dams blocked or restricted more water than ever. Since this study, China has accepted a Water Information Sharing Agreement with the MRC denoting an acceptance of responsibility as the most upstream nation.

The Downstream Impact

The MRC’s own Macroeconomic Assessment Report released in November 2017 identified that the fishing sector across the four Lower Mekong Basin countries would contract on average by 22.7% as a result of the Mekong River developments completed end of the year 2020, using 2007 as a baseline. Thailand and the Lao PDR are experiencing the sharpest contractions of 42.5% and 44.2% respectively. The report’s projections regarding the difference between the 2007 baseline and the completion of projects expected in 2040 would result in a fishing sector contraction of 31.1% across the Lower Mekong River. As per the report’s own assessment, the contraction would put “substantial pressure on food security throughout the region” causing an increase in food prices that would disproportionately impact “poor households in urban contexts”. Additionally, the WWF Mekong Sediment Case Study 2018 uncovered the impact of reduced sediment flow in the Mekong due to both sediment capture from dams and river sand mining. Specifically, the reports’ investigation highlighted that an 80% reduction in sediment flow (and the carried nutrients) to the Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia would result in an estimated 36% reduction in fish biomass, threatening significantly Cambodian food security, and the local ecology.

Particularly alarming for Vietnam is the increasing incidence of salt-water intrusion in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD). Salt-water intrusion due to the declining river flow at the delta has already led to a decline in the availability of freshwater for irrigation and drinking water. Considering the VMD accounts for 50% of Vietnam’s rice production, and overall, 33% of overall Vietnamese GDP, the effects of salt-water intrusion and the subsequent agricultural fallout could be leave lasting damage, with the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture going as far to “urge farmers to switch to drought-resistant crops”.

The Future of Mekong River Development

If taking a leading role in the Lancang-Mekong River’s management, China should look towards expanding the remit of its Lancang-Mekong Cooperation group, onboarding a rules-based framework modelled on the UN Watercourse Convention to ensure that the river’s development is undertaken in a sustainable manner. In particular, it should highlight the importance of the UN Watercourse Convention (UNWC) Article 33 regarding Settlement of Disputes to harmonise the dispute mechanism with others around the world. The absence of an enforcement and dispute mechanism in the current paradigm explicitly favours upstream states. Without clarity and enforcement of rules, upstream states have little incentive for cooperation or restraint in enacting their own domestic water/energy agendas. The Mekong River Commission should also pursue the implementation of binding policy instruments to enforce sustainable development practices. Additionally, the implementation and tightening of restrictions regarding sediment retention and the allowance for fish migration need to be explicitly clarified, agreed upon and enforced by participants in the agreement to ensure that at the very least, existing aquaculture and agriculture can exist at subsistence level.

Without sustainable development practices being enforced by these multilateral institutions, downstream agriculture and aquaculture will continue to deteriorate and the food and water security circumstances will continue to become more precarious. Sustainable practices need to be adopted before it’s too late.

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