Dogfights and Diplomacy
Why a South Asian Aerial Skirmish Signals Shifting Balances in the Global Arms Market
It’s just before midnight on May 7th when alert sirens pierce the silence as Pakistan Air Force (PAF) quick reaction pilots are scrambled. In minutes, they’re airborne—rushing to intercept a wave of Indian Air Force (IAF) jets participating in Operation Sindoor. The IAF Rafales, Mirage 2000s, and MiG-29s unleash precision strikes along the border, while the PAF’s Chinese-built JF-17s lock on in a beyond-visual-range (BVR) engagement. In a dramatic exchange, they down two of the IAF’s most advanced assets: the French-built Rafale fighters.
As the world looked on, immediately questions were raised about how an unproven and relatively cheap Chinese-made platform could outperform the five times more expensive French-made jet. What would such an event mean for governments looking to upgrade or expand existing fleets? Does the Chinese Air Force have teeth? And how can doctrine be shaped to give smaller air groups the advantage against a larger foe?
Changing Logics
Real world kinetic engagements provide defense contractors with the best - and potentially worst - form of marketing for their products. Simulations and data sheets offer a wealth of information for procurement officers, and air shows can provide the spectacle that may swing pen to paper - but real world performance remains the true arbiter of decision-making.
The Dassault Rafale is one of France’s most successful export jets of the 4th generation. India, the UAE, and France all operate the Rafale at present with further orders on the books to expand their inventories. Significant orders have been placed with the French contractor from representatives from both the Croatian and Indonesian air forces but these deals may be under threat from the poor performance displayed, specifically in the context of Indonesia where the J-17C is a foe likely to be faced.
A Leading Edge
Pakistan’s Airpower Centre for Excellence (ACE) is a key node of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, responsible for organizing a number of multi-lateral military exercises. One of these exercises, Indus Shield, included the participation of both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, notably two countries that operate the Dassault Rafale fighter as a key component in their respective air-forces. Although, according to the PAF’s magazine Second to None, PAF pilots did not directly engage Egyptian or UAE Rafales in traditional Red vs Blue simulated scenarios, the invaluable wargaming information, discussion of doctrine and tactics, and contributions from these countries vis-a-vis the inclusion of the Rafale and its capabilities could theoretically have played a role in the efficacy of the PAF’s ability to counter India’s Rafale contingent.
Furthermore, the PAF’s biannual “Wide Awake” exercises (requiring all serviceable aircraft to respond to an out of hours warning with full operational load), were potentially decisive in the PAFs rapid response time.
PAF J-17 Thunder taxiing at
The Paper Tiger Bears Its’ Teeth
The Chinese military-industrial complex has long been criticised by Western defence technology experts for its’ reliance on reverse engineering, patent theft, and Russian export licenses. Yet in recent times China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) has engineered indigenously designed export-ready aircraft that have now proven themselves in the crucible of battle against Western designs. Perceptions of whether or not the Chinese military has teeth will have shifted after such a display across the Indian-Pakistan border, and the sharpness of their budget air platforms demonstrated.
Although victories such as these may lead some commentators and analysts to make the claim that the Chinese military industrial export sector has demonstrated its maturity, Chinese soft-power more broadly remains lacking in its ability to bring customers of either the United States or Russia into the fold. Whilst there are some deals for Chinese aircraft in the final stages of their negotiation - sure to be consolidated after last week’s affairs - the complete impact for French exports remains to be seen.
It was not long ago that the French defence export market was shut out of a lucrative nuclear submarine deal with the Australians, with the Aussies opting to buy from its Anglophone partners under the guise of the AUKUS framework.
Across the Taiwan Strait, military planners and defence officials anxiously analyse the findings from the recent engagement and assess the capablities of the Chinese Air Force’s increasing inventory of J-17 variants,
Decisive diplomatic talks were successful in preventing further escalation from either of the two nuclear powers, but as the dust settles from this recent exchange between two bitter adversaries, many air force procurement officers around the globe prepare to rethink existing and potential contracts. Two aircraft contractors come into sharp focus: France’s Dassault Aviation, and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation.